Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.713480 3.720684 5.156851 7.428395 1.107843e+01 1.699910e+01 27.995793
2025-02-16 1.811667 2.869432 4.699804 8.369244 1.633895e+01 3.530462e+01 95.065543
2025-02-23 1.203918 2.118284 3.951000 8.415800 2.117122e+01 6.645145e+01 349.709206
2025-03-02 0.814575 1.552765 3.213782 7.980292 2.550911e+01 1.207086e+02 1697.995384
2025-03-09 0.629130 1.301831 3.012211 8.913267 3.860193e+01 3.422433e+02 62282.558191
2025-03-16 0.492259 1.091968 2.788544 9.737737 5.818066e+01 1.211685e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.401346 0.950443 2.672831 11.091038 9.682237e+01 8.433411e+03 NaN
2025-03-30 0.330205 0.827377 2.536531 12.404698 1.636535e+02 2.320800e+05 NaN
2025-04-06 0.260430 0.676212 2.192561 11.994047 2.173753e+02 2.156457e+08 NaN
2025-04-13 0.205528 0.547614 1.850585 11.029117 2.609287e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.175525 0.485957 1.748497 11.926964 4.516044e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.156764 0.453701 1.758602 14.203358 1.083794e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.140985 0.427881 1.800443 17.729830 3.894498e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.122807 0.385277 1.719430 19.684173 1.272082e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.103769 0.331604 1.529948 19.136763 2.805025e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.086992 0.280988 1.321995 17.439866 4.623758e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.077880 0.258536 1.279433 19.456529 4.866867e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.069712 0.236918 1.225337 21.211882 5.200323e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.063591 0.221889 1.206910 24.391080 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.057999 0.207104 1.178222 27.515223 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.051107 0.183916 1.062403 26.100038 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.044739 0.161380 0.936558 23.369563 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.041146 0.151008 0.906980 25.454144 NaN NaN NaN